Wednesday, March 11, 2009

The feasibility of $700,000 /mo. on Socialmedia, revisited.

Socialmedia to the best of my knowledge, does not do incentivized offers. Incentivized offers, done by companies such as Offerpal Media, Peanut Labs and Gambit, let users complete CPA offers for points or other forms of currency on a Facebook app. Some CPA networks also provide this functionality in the form of postbacks after an offer has been successfully completed. CPA Storm is an example of such a network.

But Socialmedia, to the best of my knowledge, does not do incentivized offers although its display ads often advertise CPA offers. The $700K therefore must only from display advertising. This will allow us to examine the feasibility of making $700K from pageviews alone, behold.

If you haven't read my last post, I call Socialmedia out as either either proud, lying or stupid. Let's revisit the post, this time with numbers.

The average eCPM for a publisher running Socialmedia ads hovers around $0.40 eCPM for a 645x60 banner ad at the top of the canvas page. Skillfully placed, a developer can probably milk an eCPM of around $2 - from either increasing # of ad units used or by placing them near a button with high click-throughs. Assuming the developer in question is fairly skilled and competent we can grant him an eCPM of $2.

To make $700K from display advertising one therefore needs 350 million canvas page impressions or, assuming 10 page views per visit, 35 million visits, per month. Our own apps, which I consider very page view intensive hover around 6-8 page views/visit per month.

The top app on Facebook, Causes, has only 26 million visits per month. The 'monthly active user' number is a synonym for monthly visits.

BUT nobody said that the money came from only one app. The developer earning $700K per month could theoretically have 10 applications each with 2 million visits per month. Then the number becomes entirely possible via display advertising.

Inevitably the next question becomes, who is it? I'll offer 100 hits in free traffic to anyone who wants to go through the most popular apps in the application database and try to figure it out. Dead serious.

So in conclusion, my initial reaction was incorrect and $700,000/mo. is entirely possible from display advertising alone, and its very possible that Socialmedia serves those ads. However to quell worries that everyone is missing out on the gold rush, ever since facebook redesigned the homepage several days ago, traffic on our applications has halved (and they were already at 10% of their peak traffic in Jan 2008). It also doesn't help that most of our apps are contest based - a recipe for shark-fin type traffic.

Also an addendum to my last post, I forgot to imagine the possibility that Socialmedia wanted to remain anonymous in the leak and maybe TC blew their cover, which in the spirit of the recent The Rules Apply to Everyone post is more than plausible. So that makes Socialmedia desperately stupid.

Mark is the creator of several successful facebook apps.

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